Look, I picked the election wrong. It is no secret and I will 'fess up to what I called. I am not overly sorry that Hillary didn't win, as that would not be much better, in the opposite direction, than Trump winning. However, I said before the election that Trump was completely unprepared, unsuited, unqualified and incapable of being President.
Let's look at what we have to go on so far...and I get it, he is not President yet. Please, I understand the calendar. But, hear me out and think about my observations. Especially if you support Trump, because you are the only power we have as a nation, that the President Elect understands.
Out of a nation of 330 million souls, approximately half of which are politically aligned with Trump, 165 million souls, and Jefferson (like Jefferson Davis) Sessions is the legal eagle to run the Justice Department? A guy that could not get confirmed as a federal judge, in Alabama, 30 years ago, during Reagan, because of racist statements and evidence, he is the right choice for AG? He has not practiced law or been in court in 20 years, but he said good things about Trump and stood out there for him.
Michael Flynn, a guy that got fired from the DIA job (military replication of the CIA), because of assclownery, is the right guy to advise the most militarily powerful leader on the planet, in terms of intelligence. A pick so bad, it has to be for a job that requires no Senate approval, because that aint happening. But, he said good things about Trump and stood out there for him.
Speaking of approval not happening, there is Steve Bannon. Let's not call him a white supremacist. That kind of minimizes what he is. He is the megaphone of every creepy, racist, militant, sick society of hate power groups, all across the nation. The Joseph Goebbels of our nation. And, yes, considering all the Heil Trump, and one armed salutes happening, I think it is appropriate to make that comparison. Again, a pick so bad, it can't get near the Senate. But, he stood behind the scenes and lined up the all the hate groups for him.
Betsy DeVos, noted not for being an educator, or even all that talented an administrator, but especially noted for being one of the biggest enemies of public education in this nation, she gets picked for Education. Nothing to be construed there, except that the disadvantaged that rely on the public education system for their unbelievably small shot at the brass ring are about to get even more disadvantaged.
Ben Carson, at least with enough integrity to understand the stakes, is being mentioned for Housing and Urban Development, and is concerned he doesn't have the ability to do the job. Weird, but thank God for one honest man. He wanted to be President, but HUD is too much for him. Go figure that one out, and you are going to be able to interrupt Trumpery for us.
Nikki Haley, who is a fine governor, actually has done a decent job, but is governor of South Carolina. I live here. That is akin to being governor of Wyoming on the international stage, but she gets an appointment to be ambassador to the United Nations. Sorry, but that is about as unqualified a pick as there exists. And, I appreciate the talent and skill of Nikki Haley as an executive. She is a very credible pick for HUD, Transportation, Interior. But, it is like picking me to be the guy singing lead for your band.
Now there seems to be some debate between Rudy Guiliani and Mitt Romney for Secretary of State. Good God, Romney looks like a good choice suddenly, though he has zero experience whatsoever in foreign policy. He must have stayed in a Holiday Inn Express. But, compared to Rudy, he is fricking Kissinger. That is where we are people. We have bad picks that look good, only because there is credible evidence that it is possible to pick a fruit cake, dementia patient on every foreign government's payroll.
Look, I pray every day for our President Elect. I have a lot of skin in this game, just like you do. I have no desire to see him fail, because that failure involves a lot of pain for me and my family. But, this is like watching Rutgers play football and assume because they have red jerseys it is like watching Alabama play football. This is not how responsible and reasonable government works.
The fact is, no one likes the breadth and sway our federal government has over all aspects of life. But, just because we don't like it, does not mean we can just chuck it all and ignore it. Even if you want rid of the Department of Education, which I hear constantly, there are huge implications to our country in that goal. It can't just turn off tomorrow.
Well, it could. If you want a picture of that, take a look at water quality in Flint Michigan. The state took over and turned off the municipal actions. And, pretty much just let it flounder. Now, thousands and thousands of kids are lead poisoned. Not at risk, not potentially. An entire generation of children, in one of the most economically destitute and devastated parts of our nation, are forever burdened with the impact of lead poisoning. Unfortunately, these kids are predominately kids of color or poor economic prospects, guess that made it okay. And, the governor responsible for that? A Republican that no one considered capable of being the Chief Executive. See there things have precedents, real time, real life.
That is what the rest of America will look like, if left to the cast that is being assembled. These are people that are woefully unqualified and unsuited for the task they are being given. The Justice Department is not just about whether or not we investigate cops that shoot people for no damn reason. It is the most powerful arm of the Executive Branch. It is the most potentially intrusive, armed force on the planet, not beholden to a federal military command structure. They actually control more guns and troops than the Department of the Army.
Those of you that were part of electing Trump, you owe the future of our country at least this much. Start showing that you are not satisfied with the third tier picks already put out there. Because it gets worse from here. We have not had a completely and utterly ineffective Executive assembled, since 1928. Herbert Hoover, and a collection of insignificants that were utterly incapable of the tasks in front of them. We went from record highs in the stock market and economic growth after the election of one of the most "revered" Republican politicians since Roosevelt (TR). Within a year, we saw Black Friday, the stock market crash and free fall into the Great Depression. The next worse, George W. Bush, and his cast of clowns and Sith Lords. Remember how great the economy looked in 2008 and 2009?
That is what happens when a President assembles a team of hangers on, B List players, amateurs and political lackeys. The only people this President Elect will listen to, are those that filled up the polls he saw and listened to. If you were one of the people that he actually saw and listened to, I hope that you realize what he is doing now. Elections have consequences.
Change, in a bad way, is preferable to chaos. A guy that won't take intelligence briefings, tweets about some Broadway actor, and can't find high calibre people for big jobs, is what chaos starts out as. These are things that impact us every day. All of us, but most significantly those with the least power or voice to defend themselves.
We all know that. Yet, here we are. Want to know why people are scared? Want to know why people protest? Because there is reason to be scared. If you are the kind of person that would be okay with me taking your appendix out, this probably doesn't bother you. But, if you are the kind of person that would go find a surgeon to do that job, maybe you should pay attention and make some noise here.
Just saying.
Friday, November 25, 2016
Wednesday, November 9, 2016
President Trump
Made myself write that. The only thing that encourages me out of that title is that it is not Madame President Clinton.
Unfortunately, it is not what I predicted. There is a bit of pride that stings in that. But, you know, I got it wrong. Along with a whole bunch of others, we all got it wrong, looking at the electorate.
That is the bad part for me, ego wise. The bad part for us all, is that the only marker we have as to what this new era will be like is the campaign.
Drain the swamp, the one in DC. Say a bunch of stuff, that no one really will hold him to. Except the folks that came out of the hills, the backwoods, the farms and the rural areas. Those folks are going to remember the Wall, Mexico paying. They are going to remember stop all Muslims from immigrating. They are going to remember 25 million jobs. They are going to remember bring manufacturing back. Bigly.
And, no disrespect, if you voted for Trump. It was your right, and more people exercised their right like that than did not. I am not going to argue he is not the President, nor do I hope that he does poorly. He is going to be my President in January, too.
The fact is, he is going to be the single most powerful person in the world. He will have the ability to at any point, turn to the mid level military officer that is never going to be more than a few steps away, and tell them launch. They produce the machinery of power, and the order goes out. The nuclear complex is built on not asking why, or should we do it, it is built on asking is the order authentic, and acting, if verified. It is a terrifying prospect.
Let me give you some history. In 2000, I was in uniform. Swore an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic. Obey the orders of the President and officers appointed over me. November 2000, the country elected a man intellectually incapable of the job. We all knew, were kind of in on the joke. Don't worry, he'll surround himself with smart, knowledgable people, that are in the establishment.
We got Cheney, Ashcroft, remember them. They built a governmental system that was broken. Regardless of ideology, they lied to Congress, the American people. Hell, they lied to Colin Powell and got him to lie to the world at the UN. Just to get involved in a war in Iraq, instead of focusing on Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda. We are still there 15 years later.
If you don't remember, or weren't aware between 2001 and January 2009, the other cool things they did for us, were to completely tank the economy, like Great Depression tank it. How? They removed themselves from the marketplace, let the corporate entities regulate themself. They sold subprime loans, wholly unethical practices, built a big chunk of the American economy into overvalued real estate, which, when it collapsed, nearly took down the auto industry with it.
Elections have consequences. Electing people that are "different", change agents, has consequences. I don't think Trump is as dense as George Bush turned out to be in reality. More worrisome, I think he is as vain, trivial and clueless as he has portrayed himself through this election. But, that is what I think, and not what I know.
I pray I am wrong. And, I pray that this works out. I fear that it will not. This is no longer a middle finger to the world, this is real. Every single word, action and sign that Trump shows from this moment on, will cause ripples through the global economy and the world. Every single word, action and sing that Trump shows from this moment on, will be acted upon by other players on the world stage. There are not any do overs. There are not any oops moments.
It is an awesome responsibility. I don't know that it is going to turn out well. I pray it will. But, there is an incredible and truly scary host of things that could not work out well. That is the risk for every new President, regardless of background. But, never before have we spent 17 months reinforcing to a man motivated by the reinforcement, that he should ignore completely, the folks that know the answer.
Did not sleep well. Hope I worry for nothing. Pretty sure I am not.
Unfortunately, it is not what I predicted. There is a bit of pride that stings in that. But, you know, I got it wrong. Along with a whole bunch of others, we all got it wrong, looking at the electorate.
That is the bad part for me, ego wise. The bad part for us all, is that the only marker we have as to what this new era will be like is the campaign.
Drain the swamp, the one in DC. Say a bunch of stuff, that no one really will hold him to. Except the folks that came out of the hills, the backwoods, the farms and the rural areas. Those folks are going to remember the Wall, Mexico paying. They are going to remember stop all Muslims from immigrating. They are going to remember 25 million jobs. They are going to remember bring manufacturing back. Bigly.
And, no disrespect, if you voted for Trump. It was your right, and more people exercised their right like that than did not. I am not going to argue he is not the President, nor do I hope that he does poorly. He is going to be my President in January, too.
The fact is, he is going to be the single most powerful person in the world. He will have the ability to at any point, turn to the mid level military officer that is never going to be more than a few steps away, and tell them launch. They produce the machinery of power, and the order goes out. The nuclear complex is built on not asking why, or should we do it, it is built on asking is the order authentic, and acting, if verified. It is a terrifying prospect.
Let me give you some history. In 2000, I was in uniform. Swore an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic. Obey the orders of the President and officers appointed over me. November 2000, the country elected a man intellectually incapable of the job. We all knew, were kind of in on the joke. Don't worry, he'll surround himself with smart, knowledgable people, that are in the establishment.
We got Cheney, Ashcroft, remember them. They built a governmental system that was broken. Regardless of ideology, they lied to Congress, the American people. Hell, they lied to Colin Powell and got him to lie to the world at the UN. Just to get involved in a war in Iraq, instead of focusing on Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda. We are still there 15 years later.
If you don't remember, or weren't aware between 2001 and January 2009, the other cool things they did for us, were to completely tank the economy, like Great Depression tank it. How? They removed themselves from the marketplace, let the corporate entities regulate themself. They sold subprime loans, wholly unethical practices, built a big chunk of the American economy into overvalued real estate, which, when it collapsed, nearly took down the auto industry with it.
Elections have consequences. Electing people that are "different", change agents, has consequences. I don't think Trump is as dense as George Bush turned out to be in reality. More worrisome, I think he is as vain, trivial and clueless as he has portrayed himself through this election. But, that is what I think, and not what I know.
I pray I am wrong. And, I pray that this works out. I fear that it will not. This is no longer a middle finger to the world, this is real. Every single word, action and sign that Trump shows from this moment on, will cause ripples through the global economy and the world. Every single word, action and sing that Trump shows from this moment on, will be acted upon by other players on the world stage. There are not any do overs. There are not any oops moments.
It is an awesome responsibility. I don't know that it is going to turn out well. I pray it will. But, there is an incredible and truly scary host of things that could not work out well. That is the risk for every new President, regardless of background. But, never before have we spent 17 months reinforcing to a man motivated by the reinforcement, that he should ignore completely, the folks that know the answer.
Did not sleep well. Hope I worry for nothing. Pretty sure I am not.
Sunday, November 6, 2016
Election Prediction
Kind of a weird Sunday. We are about 48 hours from voting starting in the election. Honestly not happy to see either major candidate win. Neither of them are what I think this nation deserves. But, that will not change the outcome.
On November 9th, Hillary Clinton will have been elected President of the United States. It will mark 6 popular vote victories for Democrats in the last 7 elections (yes Gore won more votes). It will be because a huge plurality of urban and minority voters rejected the Republican nominee AGAIN. It will most certainly not be because the Democrats nominated someone that should have won the Presidency.
Maybe after the election, I will go into the deep details as to how the Republicans will have lost 6 of the last 7 popular votes at a national level. But, today, just wanted to formally register my prediction.
Michigan, Democrat. Nevada, Democrat. Pennsylvania, Democrat. Colorado, Democrat. Florida, very close but Democrat. North Carolina, Democrat (HB2, will also produce a Democratic governor and Senator). All of the "battlegrounds" may go Democrat. Iowa and New Hampshire, I don't know. Ohio will probably go to Trump.
Trump will win all the places that have less people than wildlife. And lose, significantly, the urban areas and deeply populated portions of the nation. All the places that you have to win, to win the Presidency, he will lose, by huge pluralities.
They are both horrible, flawed, unworthy candidates. Almost any of their challengers in the primaries would have been preferable and better. But, big money and crazy angry got the candidates they wanted. And, here we are.
The worry I have, as a person that has been registered Republican, has been a fairly reliable Republican vote since 1985 when I was old enough to vote, is that the party is broken. There is a huge divide between the Republican Party and communities of color. There is a huge divide between the Republican Party and urban populations. In control of the party, there is now a heavy layer of people without the ability to see the forest for the trees. They will look at the results of this election, and spend 2 years doing nothing, investigating, digging, rehashing, continuing to ignore the populations that are growing, that have real needs.
The country will never again have as high a percentage of white men as it does today. The country will never have as high a percentage of rural voters as it does today. The country will never have as many evangelical Christian voters as it does today. The country has already seen the Boomers fall out of the largest voting block in the nation.
Because of that, the narrow sliver of the platform that Republican leadership is teetering on, is incapable of delivering a national election. The reality is most of America is just fine with gay marriage. Most of America does not see common sense gun control (no fly no buy, mandatory background checks, limits on high capacity magazines) as the death of the Second Amendment. Nor does most of America want to see the end of the Second Amendment, they just don't want their kids shot by some nutjob with a gun they should never have access to. Most of America does not see people of color as dangerous. Most of America hates terrorists, but also knows several people that are Muslim and not terrorists. Most of America lives in places that have to worry about crime rates, drug issues and piss poor infrastructure that require investment, every single day, in their neighborhood.
That is just a reality of numbers. Either the Republicans figure that out, or they will hold on to a red crescent from Idaho to Alabama that deliver 150 electoral votes in Presidential elections and that is it. It is that simple. Nothing will stop the continuing change in demographics in this nation. There will not be another 1950's, and that is not so bad. In the 50's, there were still signs that said whites only and colored only. In the 50's, most people suffering a heart attack died before they got to the hospital. In the 50's, we were still living duck and cover.
Things are better, all over the world, all over this country, since 1950. That is the message that both parties, but most especially the Republicans, better get out of this election. The culture wars are going to be very costly, if they continue.
We will see if I am right or wrong in less than 48 hours. But, I say Hillary gets above 308 electoral votes. And, that the Republicans found a banner to follow that was so bad that it resulted in the most hated candidate (other than their own) to ever run for President, still won.
I don't know if they will ever admit to losing. That is the thing that worries me most. Even in the midst of a historic defeat, there will be a denial of the results. All cooked up because they have seen, the smart political folks who are paid to know what is going to happen, what is coming. That has generated the whole it is rigged line. Pretty sad, pretty bad and pretty much all there is left.
On November 9th, Hillary Clinton will have been elected President of the United States. It will mark 6 popular vote victories for Democrats in the last 7 elections (yes Gore won more votes). It will be because a huge plurality of urban and minority voters rejected the Republican nominee AGAIN. It will most certainly not be because the Democrats nominated someone that should have won the Presidency.
Maybe after the election, I will go into the deep details as to how the Republicans will have lost 6 of the last 7 popular votes at a national level. But, today, just wanted to formally register my prediction.
Michigan, Democrat. Nevada, Democrat. Pennsylvania, Democrat. Colorado, Democrat. Florida, very close but Democrat. North Carolina, Democrat (HB2, will also produce a Democratic governor and Senator). All of the "battlegrounds" may go Democrat. Iowa and New Hampshire, I don't know. Ohio will probably go to Trump.
Trump will win all the places that have less people than wildlife. And lose, significantly, the urban areas and deeply populated portions of the nation. All the places that you have to win, to win the Presidency, he will lose, by huge pluralities.
They are both horrible, flawed, unworthy candidates. Almost any of their challengers in the primaries would have been preferable and better. But, big money and crazy angry got the candidates they wanted. And, here we are.
The worry I have, as a person that has been registered Republican, has been a fairly reliable Republican vote since 1985 when I was old enough to vote, is that the party is broken. There is a huge divide between the Republican Party and communities of color. There is a huge divide between the Republican Party and urban populations. In control of the party, there is now a heavy layer of people without the ability to see the forest for the trees. They will look at the results of this election, and spend 2 years doing nothing, investigating, digging, rehashing, continuing to ignore the populations that are growing, that have real needs.
The country will never again have as high a percentage of white men as it does today. The country will never have as high a percentage of rural voters as it does today. The country will never have as many evangelical Christian voters as it does today. The country has already seen the Boomers fall out of the largest voting block in the nation.
Because of that, the narrow sliver of the platform that Republican leadership is teetering on, is incapable of delivering a national election. The reality is most of America is just fine with gay marriage. Most of America does not see common sense gun control (no fly no buy, mandatory background checks, limits on high capacity magazines) as the death of the Second Amendment. Nor does most of America want to see the end of the Second Amendment, they just don't want their kids shot by some nutjob with a gun they should never have access to. Most of America does not see people of color as dangerous. Most of America hates terrorists, but also knows several people that are Muslim and not terrorists. Most of America lives in places that have to worry about crime rates, drug issues and piss poor infrastructure that require investment, every single day, in their neighborhood.
That is just a reality of numbers. Either the Republicans figure that out, or they will hold on to a red crescent from Idaho to Alabama that deliver 150 electoral votes in Presidential elections and that is it. It is that simple. Nothing will stop the continuing change in demographics in this nation. There will not be another 1950's, and that is not so bad. In the 50's, there were still signs that said whites only and colored only. In the 50's, most people suffering a heart attack died before they got to the hospital. In the 50's, we were still living duck and cover.
Things are better, all over the world, all over this country, since 1950. That is the message that both parties, but most especially the Republicans, better get out of this election. The culture wars are going to be very costly, if they continue.
We will see if I am right or wrong in less than 48 hours. But, I say Hillary gets above 308 electoral votes. And, that the Republicans found a banner to follow that was so bad that it resulted in the most hated candidate (other than their own) to ever run for President, still won.
I don't know if they will ever admit to losing. That is the thing that worries me most. Even in the midst of a historic defeat, there will be a denial of the results. All cooked up because they have seen, the smart political folks who are paid to know what is going to happen, what is coming. That has generated the whole it is rigged line. Pretty sad, pretty bad and pretty much all there is left.
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