Kind of a weird Sunday. We are about 48 hours from voting starting in the election. Honestly not happy to see either major candidate win. Neither of them are what I think this nation deserves. But, that will not change the outcome.
On November 9th, Hillary Clinton will have been elected President of the United States. It will mark 6 popular vote victories for Democrats in the last 7 elections (yes Gore won more votes). It will be because a huge plurality of urban and minority voters rejected the Republican nominee AGAIN. It will most certainly not be because the Democrats nominated someone that should have won the Presidency.
Maybe after the election, I will go into the deep details as to how the Republicans will have lost 6 of the last 7 popular votes at a national level. But, today, just wanted to formally register my prediction.
Michigan, Democrat. Nevada, Democrat. Pennsylvania, Democrat. Colorado, Democrat. Florida, very close but Democrat. North Carolina, Democrat (HB2, will also produce a Democratic governor and Senator). All of the "battlegrounds" may go Democrat. Iowa and New Hampshire, I don't know. Ohio will probably go to Trump.
Trump will win all the places that have less people than wildlife. And lose, significantly, the urban areas and deeply populated portions of the nation. All the places that you have to win, to win the Presidency, he will lose, by huge pluralities.
They are both horrible, flawed, unworthy candidates. Almost any of their challengers in the primaries would have been preferable and better. But, big money and crazy angry got the candidates they wanted. And, here we are.
The worry I have, as a person that has been registered Republican, has been a fairly reliable Republican vote since 1985 when I was old enough to vote, is that the party is broken. There is a huge divide between the Republican Party and communities of color. There is a huge divide between the Republican Party and urban populations. In control of the party, there is now a heavy layer of people without the ability to see the forest for the trees. They will look at the results of this election, and spend 2 years doing nothing, investigating, digging, rehashing, continuing to ignore the populations that are growing, that have real needs.
The country will never again have as high a percentage of white men as it does today. The country will never have as high a percentage of rural voters as it does today. The country will never have as many evangelical Christian voters as it does today. The country has already seen the Boomers fall out of the largest voting block in the nation.
Because of that, the narrow sliver of the platform that Republican leadership is teetering on, is incapable of delivering a national election. The reality is most of America is just fine with gay marriage. Most of America does not see common sense gun control (no fly no buy, mandatory background checks, limits on high capacity magazines) as the death of the Second Amendment. Nor does most of America want to see the end of the Second Amendment, they just don't want their kids shot by some nutjob with a gun they should never have access to. Most of America does not see people of color as dangerous. Most of America hates terrorists, but also knows several people that are Muslim and not terrorists. Most of America lives in places that have to worry about crime rates, drug issues and piss poor infrastructure that require investment, every single day, in their neighborhood.
That is just a reality of numbers. Either the Republicans figure that out, or they will hold on to a red crescent from Idaho to Alabama that deliver 150 electoral votes in Presidential elections and that is it. It is that simple. Nothing will stop the continuing change in demographics in this nation. There will not be another 1950's, and that is not so bad. In the 50's, there were still signs that said whites only and colored only. In the 50's, most people suffering a heart attack died before they got to the hospital. In the 50's, we were still living duck and cover.
Things are better, all over the world, all over this country, since 1950. That is the message that both parties, but most especially the Republicans, better get out of this election. The culture wars are going to be very costly, if they continue.
We will see if I am right or wrong in less than 48 hours. But, I say Hillary gets above 308 electoral votes. And, that the Republicans found a banner to follow that was so bad that it resulted in the most hated candidate (other than their own) to ever run for President, still won.
I don't know if they will ever admit to losing. That is the thing that worries me most. Even in the midst of a historic defeat, there will be a denial of the results. All cooked up because they have seen, the smart political folks who are paid to know what is going to happen, what is coming. That has generated the whole it is rigged line. Pretty sad, pretty bad and pretty much all there is left.
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